Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Schmaltz 49.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 89.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Nelson
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Nelson
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.1% (268)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.5% (91)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
58.8% (17)
-6.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
52.5% (590)
49.0% (206)
Away
51.7% (619)
49.4% (170)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
50.5%
53.6%
P2
54.4%
46.2%
P3
51.4%
50.4%
OT
47.4%
16.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |