Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Zacha 44.2% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 86.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 87.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 89.8%
89.8%
10.2%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Nelson
Zacha
Last 7: Nelson 6-1 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
42.8% (514)
+7.9%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
51.9% (79)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
36.1% (61)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
53.6% (603)
45.0% (289)
Away
49.9% (585)
41.9% (365)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
55.4%
47.4%
P2
47.2%
43.8%
P3
52.6%
37.7%
OT
51.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.1%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 07:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |