Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Zacha 51.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 53.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 57.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 53.7%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Nelson
Zacha
Last 9: Nelson 1-8 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
4
Nelson
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.3% (646)
-2.6%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.0% (100)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
38.9% (72)
+4.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
52.3% (621)
51.7% (410)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
48.4%
57.7%
P2
53.5%
48.9%
P3
50.3%
50.2%
OT
41.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |