Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Zacha 52.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 52.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Nelson
Zacha
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
Nelson
Zacha
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
54.1% (534)
-2.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
56.0% (109)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
44.8% (96)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
52.5% (590)
53.4% (406)
Away
51.7% (619)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
50.5%
56.8%
P2
54.4%
53.6%
P3
51.4%
49.2%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |