Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 50.1%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Zacha 50.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 54.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 53.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Zacha
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Nelson
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Nelson
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
48.0% (296)
+1.9%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
61.0% (59)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
50.0% (22)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (217).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
49.8% (458)
48.9% (223)
Away
49.0% (506)
51.9% (154)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
50.1%
47.9%
P2
45.4%
48.3%
P3
52.7%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
47.1%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 18:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 11, 2021 | 2 | 14:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |