Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.1%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zacha 49.1% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 53-48 in 101 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 52.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 51.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
53
-
48
(101 meetings)
53
48
Nelson
Zacha
Last 10: Nelson 1-9 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
18
19
Nelson
Zacha
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
16
Nelson
Zacha
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
17
13
Nelson
Zacha
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.9% (5,102)
-1.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.6% (804)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
42.2% (555)
+1.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
48.7%
49.9%
P2
48.5%
49.2%
P3
47.7%
48.1%
OT
45.6%
53.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:54 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |