Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Danault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Danault 51.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danault 54.0%
Defensive zone
Danault 77.4%
Neutral zone
Danault 70.5%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Nelson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Danault
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Danault
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
52.6% (895)
-6.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
55.7% (97)
-21.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
45.5% (165)
-15.1%
On power play, Danault has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Danault is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (787).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danault
Home
48.7% (419)
54.0% (581)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.7% (576)
By Period
Nelson
Danault
P1
44.6%
53.7%
P2
47.3%
55.3%
P3
43.0%
46.5%
OT
100.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Danault
62.0%▲
58.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |