Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Danault 54.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.7%
Defensive zone
Danault 62.7%
Neutral zone
Danault 54.8%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Nelson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Danault
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Danault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
56.5% (711)
-5.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
46.0% (50)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
51.7% (116)
-8.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Danault is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danault
Home
52.3% (621)
57.0% (379)
Away
48.9% (618)
54.0% (498)
By Period
Nelson
Danault
P1
48.4%
55.8%
P2
53.5%
55.3%
P3
50.3%
54.8%
OT
41.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 18:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |