Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.2%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Danault 52.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Defensive zone
Danault 62.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Nelson
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Nelson
Danault
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Danault
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
3
4
Nelson
Danault
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Danault
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.4% (958)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
62.0% (71)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
47.6% (187)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Danault is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (832).
Home / Away
Nelson
Danault
Home
52.5% (590)
51.2% (605)
Away
51.7% (619)
53.2% (611)
By Period
Nelson
Danault
P1
50.5%
53.1%
P2
54.4%
49.8%
P3
51.4%
54.3%
OT
47.4%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:17 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |