Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Fabbri 47.3% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 84.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
Nelson
Fabbri
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Fabbri
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Fabbri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Fabbri
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fabbri
0
2
Nelson
Fabbri
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Fabbri
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
44.2% (113)
+7.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
55.6% (18)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
44.0% (25)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fabbri shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Fabbri is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Nelson
Fabbri
Home
52.5% (590)
49.2% (61)
Away
51.7% (619)
43.2% (95)
By Period
Nelson
Fabbri
P1
50.5%
37.7%
P2
54.4%
41.9%
P3
51.4%
54.2%
OT
47.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Fabbri
44.0%▼
51.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |