Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Fabbri 47.4% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 66.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Nelson
Fabbri
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Fabbri
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Fabbri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Fabbri
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fabbri
1
2
Nelson
Fabbri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Fabbri
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.4% (531)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.0% (168)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
42.9% (28)
+0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Fabbri shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Fabbri is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Nelson
Fabbri
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.6% (368)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
45.4% (359)
By Period
Nelson
Fabbri
P1
48.7%
44.1%
P2
48.5%
49.0%
P3
47.7%
48.2%
OT
45.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Fabbri
44.0%▼
51.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 01:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |
| Dec 2, 2019 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |