Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Thomas 51.7% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.9%
Neutral zone
Thomas 52.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Thomas
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Thomas
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
50.1% (615)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
62.2% (98)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
52.6% (114)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
52.3% (621)
51.9% (374)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
48.4%
49.2%
P2
53.5%
55.3%
P3
50.3%
50.6%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |