Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Thomas 54.5% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-7 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.2%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.8%
Neutral zone
Thomas 52.1%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
7
(19 meetings)
12
7
Nelson
Thomas
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Thomas
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Thomas
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
55.3% (990)
-4.0%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
54.2% (190)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
52.5% (158)
-0.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (994).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
52.5% (590)
55.1% (690)
Away
51.7% (619)
54.5% (648)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
50.5%
55.5%
P2
54.4%
56.4%
P3
51.4%
51.5%
OT
47.4%
69.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |