Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Thomas 51.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 20-13 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 57.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 55.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 56.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
13
(33 meetings)
20
13
Nelson
Thomas
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
5
Nelson
Thomas
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
6
Nelson
Thomas
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
2
Nelson
Thomas
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.1% (5,350)
-3.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.8% (921)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
49.9% (691)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,919).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.9% (3,458)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.3% (3,504)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
48.7%
50.6%
P2
48.5%
52.9%
P3
47.7%
50.8%
OT
45.6%
59.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:14 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |