Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Thomas 52.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 58.8%
Defensive zone
Thomas 76.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 64.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 76.2%
23.8%
76.2%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Nelson
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
53.6% (924)
-6.7%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
55.2% (181)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
44.0% (116)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (869).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
48.9% (521)
53.6% (606)
Away
45.5% (516)
52.2% (615)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
45.9%
48.2%
P2
48.0%
55.3%
P3
48.0%
55.2%
OT
33.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 12:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |