Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Thomas 49.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Nelson
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Nelson
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.0% (910)
+0.9%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
53.5% (142)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
53.3% (75)
-24.7%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Thomas is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thomas
Home
49.8% (458)
47.3% (514)
Away
49.0% (506)
52.0% (613)
By Period
Nelson
Thomas
P1
50.1%
50.4%
P2
45.4%
47.5%
P3
52.7%
51.4%
OT
33.3%
61.5%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Thomas
42.0%▼
47.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 16:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 02:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |