Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hartman 45.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hartman 56.9%
Neutral zone
Hartman 65.0%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Nelson
Hartman
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
3
6
Nelson
Hartman
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Hartman
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
44.8% (936)
+5.1%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
49.4% (154)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
33.3% (54)
-4.7%
On even strength, Nelson has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
49.8% (458)
47.4% (568)
Away
49.0% (506)
42.4% (576)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
50.1%
47.2%
P2
45.4%
43.4%
P3
52.7%
43.8%
OT
33.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.4%
Hartman
44.0%▲
41.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 11:27 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 04:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 16:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 13:25 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 10:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 04:03 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 06:17 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |