Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Hartman 44.0% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 55.1%
Defensive zone
Hartman 74.3%
Neutral zone
Hartman 60.6%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Nelson
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Nelson
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
42.6% (495)
+4.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
38.5% (26)
+18.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.8% (43)
-23.8%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
48.9% (521)
43.4% (288)
Away
45.5% (516)
42.4% (276)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
45.9%
43.1%
P2
48.0%
43.4%
P3
48.0%
42.0%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |