Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Hartman 48.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hartman 62.1%
Neutral zone
Hartman 51.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.1% (520)
+3.2%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
44.7% (47)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
47.8% (23)
+4.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
52.5% (590)
48.3% (360)
Away
51.7% (619)
47.0% (230)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
50.5%
48.5%
P2
54.4%
45.2%
P3
51.4%
49.6%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:22 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |