Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Hartman 45.5% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Hartman leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 70.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 77.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 71.1%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 72.0%
28.0%
72.0%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Nelson
Hartman
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
5
Nelson
Hartman
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
Nelson
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
44.8% (830)
+5.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
47.8% (92)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
37.5% (16)
+5.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
52.3% (621)
45.0% (515)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
48.4%
46.5%
P2
53.5%
39.9%
P3
50.3%
48.6%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:46 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |