Scouting Report
Ryan Hartman holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Hartman 47.3% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.1%
Defensive zone
Hartman 56.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Nelson
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Nelson
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Hartman
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.1% (649)
-1.0%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
47.1% (68)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
45.2% (73)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hartman
Home
48.7% (419)
46.5% (361)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Nelson
Hartman
P1
44.6%
45.1%
P2
47.3%
44.4%
P3
43.0%
50.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |