Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-14.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 18-4 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 93.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 93.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 93.2%
93.2%
6.8%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
18
(22 meetings)
4
18
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
8
Nelson
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
7
Nelson
O'Reilly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Nelson
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
57.9% (1,179)
-14.9%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
63.0% (292)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
53.8% (320)
-9.5%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
41.9% (391)
61.3% (884)
Away
45.5% (400)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
47.1%
55.5%
P2
43.0%
61.0%
P3
40.9%
56.8%
OT
63.6%
67.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 1 | 11:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 1 | 01:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 10:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 19:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 17:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2016 | 1 | 16:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |