Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
56.1% (690)
-9.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
64.6% (96)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
45.9% (109)
-20.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
48.9% (521)
58.3% (408)
Away
45.5% (516)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
45.9%
57.7%
P2
48.0%
54.8%
P3
48.0%
55.2%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 15:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 2 | 02:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 04:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 08:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 04:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 07:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |