Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 50 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 76-45 in 121 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 92.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 92.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
45
-
76
(121 meetings)
45
76
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
32
Nelson
O'Reilly
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
16
25
Nelson
O'Reilly
41 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
11
19
Nelson
O'Reilly
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (5,845)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
48.7%
55.6%
P2
48.5%
57.0%
P3
47.7%
55.1%
OT
45.6%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |