Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 54.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
56.2% (983)
-4.9%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
55.5% (254)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
52.0% (102)
-0.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (590)
56.2% (697)
Away
51.7% (619)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
50.5%
54.5%
P2
54.4%
55.5%
P3
51.4%
57.1%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |