Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Nelson
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Nelson
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
56.6% (1,064)
-6.7%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
60.4% (260)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
54.0% (261)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (458)
54.9% (801)
Away
49.0% (506)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
50.1%
58.0%
P2
45.4%
56.7%
P3
52.7%
55.4%
OT
33.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
47.1%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 17:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 13:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |