Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nelson
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
55.0% (1,084)
-8.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.8% (303)
-22.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
40.3% (149)
-9.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
48.7% (419)
54.8% (759)
Away
41.3% (368)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
44.6%
55.3%
P2
47.3%
51.9%
P3
43.0%
54.2%
OT
100.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 03:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |