Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.0%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Bennett 47.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.2%
Defensive zone
Bennett 57.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Nelson
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Nelson
Bennett
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Bennett
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Bennett
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
Nelson
Bennett
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
48.2% (766)
-1.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
45.1% (82)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
33.9% (56)
-8.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Bennett is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bennett
Home
48.9% (521)
49.1% (458)
Away
45.5% (516)
44.8% (446)
By Period
Nelson
Bennett
P1
45.9%
47.9%
P2
48.0%
47.2%
P3
48.0%
46.4%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 15:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 08:50 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:16 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |