Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Bennett 47.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 41-34 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
Bennett 50.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Nelson
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
34
(75 meetings)
41
34
Nelson
Bennett
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
16
10
Nelson
Bennett
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
9
Nelson
Bennett
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
15
15
Nelson
Bennett
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.8% (5,683)
+1.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.7% (555)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.8% (256)
+2.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Bennett is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,232).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bennett
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.4% (3,262)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
45.9% (3,232)
By Period
Nelson
Bennett
P1
48.7%
48.0%
P2
48.5%
46.5%
P3
47.7%
46.9%
OT
45.6%
52.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:23 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 02:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |