Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Bennett 46.6% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Bennett leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Bennett 54.3%
Defensive zone
Bennett 53.0%
Neutral zone
Bennett 57.0%
Result
Sam Bennett favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Nelson
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Nelson
Bennett
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Bennett
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
2
Nelson
Bennett
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
1
4
Nelson
Bennett
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
46.5% (909)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
43.1% (51)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
38.5% (13)
+13.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Bennett is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bennett
Home
52.5% (590)
45.4% (449)
Away
51.7% (619)
46.9% (524)
By Period
Nelson
Bennett
P1
50.5%
49.6%
P2
54.4%
43.7%
P3
51.4%
45.1%
OT
47.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:58 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 02:55 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 05:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |