Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.5%). Look for Bennett on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Bennett 45.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 53.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Nelson
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Bennett
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
2
Nelson
Bennett
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
1
3
Nelson
Bennett
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.7% (772)
+1.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.9% (58)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.9% (28)
-12.5%
On power play, Bennett has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Bennett is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bennett
Home
48.7% (419)
48.5% (447)
Away
41.3% (368)
42.1% (411)
By Period
Nelson
Bennett
P1
44.6%
47.1%
P2
47.3%
45.8%
P3
43.0%
42.9%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 11:14 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:13 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |