Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 48.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Reinhart 48.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Reinhart
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
48.0% (275)
+1.9%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
48.1% (52)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
53.1% (32)
-24.5%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
49.8% (458)
49.8% (201)
Away
49.0% (506)
46.8% (158)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
50.1%
54.8%
P2
45.4%
40.5%
P3
52.7%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 14:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 03:24 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |