Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.1%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 59.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Nelson
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.6% (345)
+1.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
43.3% (97)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.2% (88)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
48.7% (419)
47.9% (267)
Away
41.3% (368)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
44.6%
45.6%
P2
47.3%
42.0%
P3
43.0%
45.4%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |