Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Reinhart 42.9% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Nelson
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
39.0% (77)
+11.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
35.4% (48)
+23.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
40.9% (22)
+2.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
52.3% (621)
35.7% (84)
Away
48.9% (618)
41.3% (63)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
48.4%
42.6%
P2
53.5%
34.7%
P3
50.3%
37.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
38.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |