Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 68.3%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 72.5%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 71.6%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Nelson
Reinhart
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
5
7
Nelson
Reinhart
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Reinhart
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
6
Nelson
Reinhart
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
42.5% (2,173)
+5.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
46.5% (525)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.3% (339)
+2.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
50.0% (5,845)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
48.7%
44.5%
P2
48.5%
40.5%
P3
47.7%
44.5%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 14:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 1 | 03:24 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:25 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |