Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 65 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Crosby 53.5% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 97-81 in 178 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
81
-
97
(178 meetings)
81
97
Nelson
Crosby
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
25
29
Nelson
Crosby
54 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
30
29
Nelson
Crosby
59 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
26
39
Nelson
Crosby
65 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
52.8% (17,990)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.4% (4,733)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.1% (765)
-3.3%
On even strength, Crosby has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,851).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.0% (11,972)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.0% (11,535)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.5%
53.9%
P3
47.7%
53.3%
OT
45.6%
49.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:03 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 09:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 12:21 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |