Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Crosby 57.8% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
Nelson
Crosby
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
3
6
Nelson
Crosby
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
7
Nelson
Crosby
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
57.8% (1,437)
-11.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
60.9% (381)
-26.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
50.0% (54)
-19.6%
On power play, Crosby has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
48.7% (419)
59.2% (985)
Away
41.3% (368)
57.2% (887)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
44.6%
57.3%
P2
47.3%
59.5%
P3
43.0%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 18:56 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:42 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 01:50 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:51 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |