Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Crosby 49.9% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 90.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.7%
Neutral zone
Crosby 72.9%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Nelson
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Nelson
Crosby
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
2
Nelson
Crosby
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
0
Nelson
Crosby
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Crosby
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
49.4% (1,194)
-5.5%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
52.6% (350)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
43.4% (53)
-2.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Crosby is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Nelson
Crosby
Home
42.9% (406)
51.3% (776)
Away
45.8% (393)
48.6% (821)
By Period
Nelson
Crosby
P1
44.1%
50.5%
P2
47.2%
51.3%
P3
42.2%
47.8%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2015 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 3 | 17:47 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 2 | 13:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 2 | 07:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2015 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2014 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2014 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |