Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 81.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
56.1% (342)
-5.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.3% (92)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
62.5% (8)
-19.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
52.3% (621)
53.4% (208)
Away
48.9% (618)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
48.4%
55.6%
P2
53.5%
52.8%
P3
50.3%
59.1%
OT
41.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |