Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
3
Nelson
Stamkos
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.3% (789)
+0.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
56.9% (181)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
54.1% (98)
-25.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
49.8% (458)
52.0% (512)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
50.1%
42.1%
P2
45.4%
56.4%
P3
52.7%
53.7%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:14 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 3 | 13:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 1 | 11:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 1 | 02:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |