Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 33 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 45-41 in 86 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
45
(86 meetings)
41
45
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
15
16
Nelson
Stamkos
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
12
21
Nelson
Stamkos
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
14
8
Nelson
Stamkos
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.4% (9,799)
-2.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.1% (1,725)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
49.7% (825)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
48.7%
49.1%
P2
48.5%
52.7%
P3
47.7%
50.9%
OT
45.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |