Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 79.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 64.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
1
Nelson
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
5
Nelson
Stamkos
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
55.3% (628)
-8.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
55.1% (216)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
40.2% (87)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
48.9% (521)
55.5% (499)
Away
45.5% (516)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
45.9%
50.7%
P2
48.0%
53.8%
P3
48.0%
55.9%
OT
33.3%
87.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 09:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 09:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 04:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |