Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 77.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Nelson
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
49.3% (670)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
53.7% (121)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
33.3% (3)
+18.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
52.5% (590)
54.0% (400)
Away
51.7% (619)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
50.5%
48.6%
P2
54.4%
54.5%
P3
51.4%
45.4%
OT
47.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |