Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Nelson
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Nelson
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
55.9% (499)
-9.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.3% (126)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
58.3% (12)
-27.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
48.7% (419)
55.3% (349)
Away
41.3% (368)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
44.6%
57.0%
P2
47.3%
59.2%
P3
43.0%
51.5%
OT
100.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:31 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |