Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Stamkos 52.3% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Nelson
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
54.7% (179)
-11.7%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
50.0% (4)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
40.0% (15)
+4.3%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (128).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
41.9% (391)
57.4% (108)
Away
45.5% (400)
48.9% (90)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
47.1%
53.4%
P2
43.0%
51.7%
P3
40.9%
55.6%
OT
63.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2016 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |