Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Stamkos 52.8% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 75.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 60.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Nelson
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Nelson
Stamkos
Last 8: Nelson 6-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
52.9% (735)
-5.5%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
53.4% (73)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
53.8% (145)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (686).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stamkos
Home
51.0% (641)
54.1% (481)
Away
44.1% (605)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Nelson
Stamkos
P1
48.2%
50.2%
P2
48.1%
53.4%
P3
46.9%
55.8%
OT
42.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
44.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2019 | OT | 03:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 07:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 07:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |