Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.4% vs Novak 44.0% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.1%
77.1%
22.9%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Novak
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Nelson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,031)
42.7% (466)
+7.7%
Power Play
58.2% (201)
44.7% (38)
+13.5%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
51.7% (749)
43.0% (244)
Away
49.0% (710)
42.7% (260)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
48.7%
42.2%
P2
53.0%
43.5%
P3
49.6%
43.2%
OT
47.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
49.2%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.4%
Novak
62.0%▲
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |