Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Novak 43.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Nelson
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
40.7% (460)
+5.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
61.5% (39)
-27.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
0.0% (1)
+30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
48.7% (419)
47.0% (236)
Away
41.3% (368)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
44.6%
43.1%
P2
47.3%
43.1%
P3
43.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
39.4%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
45.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |