Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Novak 46.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
43.2% (118)
+6.7%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
47.8% (23)
+5.0%
On even strength, Nelson has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
49.8% (458)
50.7% (71)
Away
49.0% (506)
37.1% (70)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
50.1%
44.7%
P2
45.4%
50.0%
P3
52.7%
38.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
35.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
49.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |