Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Novak 42.5% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 90.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 87.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Novak
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Nelson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
40.4% (408)
+10.5%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
45.5% (33)
+14.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
52.9% (654)
42.0% (212)
Away
48.9% (658)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
48.4%
41.9%
P2
54.3%
39.3%
P3
50.5%
42.1%
OT
41.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |